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At noon UTC on October 24, 2023, Otis was a 65-knot hurricane off southern Mexico. Fifteen hours later it was a 145-knot Category 5, and early on October 25 it hit Acapulco. The National Hurricane Center’s own report is blunt: the explosive strengthening “was not anticipated by NHC forecasters or the intensity guidance suite.”
Two Octobers later, Hurricane Melissa came ashore in Jamaica with 160-knot winds, the strongest landfall the island has on record. Both storms happened in a month many people think of as the quiet end of hurricane season.
Is It Safe to Cruise in October?
Yes, for the most part. In October, though, the threat is to your plans more than to the ship. Two hurricane seasons are still open in October. The NHC runs the Atlantic season from June 1 to November 30 and the eastern Pacific season from May 15 to November 30. The Atlantic’s busiest stretch runs “between mid-August and mid-October.” When a storm threatens, cruise lines move the ship: they swap ports, add sea days or come home early. In the three October storms below, every report we read describes ships being steered away from the weather. The people killed and the damage done were ashore.
So the real October risk is a different cruise from the one you booked. How likely that is depends far more on which ocean you choose than on the date.
How Stormy Is October? We Counted 35 Years
We downloaded NOAA’s official storm records (HURDAT2) for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific and counted every storm from 1991 to 2025. Each storm is counted once, in the month it first reached each strength.
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Send me the deals →| Month | Atlantic: named storms / hurricanes / major | Eastern Pacific: named storms / hurricanes / major |
|---|---|---|
| August | 126 / 60 / 30 | 147 / 79 / 44 |
| September | 165 / 101 / 49 | 124 / 70 / 34 |
| October | 83 / 48 / 24 | 82 / 45 / 27 |
| November | 30 / 20 / 7 | 20 / 8 / 3 |
| Octobers with a hurricane somewhere in the basin | 29 of 35 | 26 of 35 |
Three things stand out:
- October is half of September, not zero. In the Atlantic, an average October produced more than two named storms and between one and two hurricanes.
- October storms get big. The Atlantic got 24 major hurricanes in October across the 35 years. That’s twice as many as July and November combined (12).
- The Pacific side holds on longer. In the eastern Pacific, October produced 27 major hurricanes against September’s 34. That is the ocean the Mexican Riviera sails.
Only six of the 35 Atlantic Octobers had no hurricane at all: 1993, 1994, 1997, 2007, 2009 and 2013. NOAA’s 1991-2020 averages, 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes a year, match our totals, so the count is sound.
Which Seas Are Riskiest in October?
Here’s how October looks in four regions where cruise ships sail that month, from each region’s official weather agency.
| Where you sail | Storm season | October in the record | A real October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, Gulf | Atlantic, June 1 to November 30 (NHC) | 83 named storms and 48 hurricanes in 35 Octobers | Melissa, Jamaica, October 28, 2025 |
| Mexican Riviera, Pacific Mexico | Eastern Pacific, May 15 to November 30 (NHC) | 82 named storms, 45 hurricanes, 27 major | Otis, Acapulco, October 25, 2023 |
| Japan and East Asia | Typhoons form in every month of the year (JMA) | In an average October, 3.4 typhoons form, 1.7 approach Japan and 0.3 make landfall | September is worse: 5.0, 3.3 and 1.0 |
| UK and Northern Europe | No tropical season, but autumn windstorms, named in the UK by the Met Office | Storms are named when they threaten disruption | Storm Austen, Southampton, October 22, 2026 |
If storms are what worry you, Northern Europe is the only region in the table with no hurricane or typhoon season. It still gets autumn windstorms, as Southampton found out in October 2026.
What October Storms Did to Real Cruises
Melissa, Jamaica, 2025. As the storm approached, Cruise Mummy reported that Carnival Liberty, Celebration, Dream, Sunrise and Vista were rerouted away from Jamaica and the Eastern Caribbean. Icon of the Seas and Celebrity Beyond swapped to Western Caribbean ports, and Disney Treasure went to Cozumel plus two days at Castaway Cay. Afterwards, the damage kept ships away. Cruise Hive reported that Disney cancelled Treasure’s November 5 call at Falmouth, while Jamaica’s tourism minister, Edmund Bartlett, aimed to resume tourism “on or before December 15, 2025.” Royal Caribbean then swapped Falmouth for Puerto Plata on Symphony of the Seas’ November 16 sailing and for Cabo Rojo on Oasis of the Seas’ November 23 sailing. A storm in late October was still changing cruises a month later. We covered the whole fleet’s response in our Melissa record.
Otis, Acapulco, 2023. Otis killed at least 52 people, according to NHC’s report, which cites the Mexican government, with 32 more missing. In mid-November, Puerto Vallarta’s tourism director said the city expected three extra international cruises “rerouted due to the damages in Acapulco,” according to Vallarta Daily. That’s the only source we found for the reroutes, so we’ve attributed it.
Storm Austen, Southampton, 2026. The Met Office named Austen on October 20 and warned of gusts “in excess of 70mph” on exposed coasts. Two days later, P&O’s Arvia and MSC’s Virtuosa and Preziosa all ran for Southampton early, arriving on the Thursday evening instead of Friday or Saturday morning, according to both Cruise Hive and Cruise Mummy. Guests lost the end of their trip, but the ships were alongside instead of at sea when the storm arrived. The full story, including a second storm and a strike, is in our Southampton report.
Carnival’s John Heald has explained how the line decides, as quoted by Cruise Hive: “we wait, gather advice and see what we need to do, often within a day or so notice,” and “any decision to change an itinerary is always done with the interest of guest and crew safety.” In practice, you may get one day’s warning.
What the Small Print Says
Ticket contracts allow for all of this. Clause 8(d) of Carnival’s ticket contract, which we checked on November 9, 2026, lets the line “omit or change any or all port calls, arrival or departure times, with or without notice, for any reason whatsoever, including but not limited to health and safety, security, adverse weather, hurricanes.” Apart from mechanical failures, its change-of-itinerary policy and federal rules, “Carnival shall have no liability for any compensation” for the change.
Our guide to what happens when a hurricane cancels your cruise compares what the lines offer in refunds and credits.
How to Book an October Cruise Without Regret
- Choose the ocean first. If a changed itinerary would ruin the trip, consider Northern Europe, which has no tropical storm season of its own (autumn gales still happen). Caribbean and Mexican Riviera sailings are still in season. For the Bahamas specifically, see our Bahamas-in-October odds.
- Buy insurance when you pay the deposit, not when the forecast looks bad. Squaremouth says that once a storm is named, “it is considered a foreseen event” and new policies won’t cover it. Travel Market Report calls naming “the cutoff point.” More in our insurance guide.
- Expect a different itinerary, not a refund. Fall for the ship and the sea days, not one port. If a single stop is the reason you booked, October in the tropics is a gamble.
- Watch the outlook in the week before you sail. NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook gives formation chances for the next 48 hours and 7 days, for both the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. Remember Otis, though: a quiet forecast isn’t a promise.
- Keep the first and last days loose. Ships ran home early ahead of Austen. Flexible flights and a spare night cost less than a missed connection.
October is still a good month to cruise, as long as you’re relaxed about which ports you actually see.
Cruise Chaos earns nothing from cruise lines, travel agents, insurers or booking links. The storm counts are our own, from NOAA’s public HURDAT2 files, and every other figure links to its source. If something is wrong, tell us and we’ll correct it.
Coming up on Cruise Chaos: is it safe to cruise to Mexico?
Keep Reading
- Is It Safe to Cruise to the Bahamas in October if Hurricane Season Isn’t Over?
- What Happens If Your Cruise Is Cancelled Due to a Hurricane? Refunds, Credits and the Fine Print
- Four Mexican Ports Booked, Ensenada Twice: The Carnival Cruise Two Hurricanes Rewrote
Sources
- NOAA National Hurricane Center: HURDAT2 best-track data (Atlantic 1851-2025 and Northeast/North Central Pacific 1949-2025 files, downloaded November 9, 2026)
- NOAA National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Climatology
- NHC Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023)
- NHC Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (AL132025)
- NHC: Tropical Weather Outlook
- Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon averages by month, 1991-2020 (in Japanese)
- Met Office: Storm Austen named (October 20, 2026)
- Carnival Cruise Line: Ticket Contract (clause 8(d), read November 9, 2026)
- Cruise Mummy: Hurricane Melissa threatens Jamaica as cruise lines reroute to safer waters (October 28, 2025)
- Cruise Hive: Jamaica Sets Goal to Resume Cruise Operations in December (Catie Kovelman, November 1, 2025)
- Cruise Hive: Royal Caribbean Begins Diverting Ships From Jamaica (Melissa Mayntz, November 5, 2025)
- Vallarta Daily: Cruise ships reroute to Puerto Vallarta after devastation left in Acapulco from Hurricane Otis (November 16, 2023)
- Cruise Hive: Storm Austen Forces Three Cruise Ships Into Southampton Early (Melissa Mayntz, October 22, 2026)
- Cruise Mummy: Three ships divert to Southampton ahead of Storm Austen (October 22, 2026)
- Cruise Hive: Carnival Reveals What Really Happens When a Hurricane Threatens Your Cruise (Melissa Mayntz, June 9, 2026)
- Squaremouth: Can I still buy travel insurance after a tropical storm or hurricane is named?
- Travel Market Report: Hurricane Warnings: When Is the Cutoff Point for Travel Insurance? (Richard D’Ambrosio, September 6, 2017)
