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On Sunday, October 25, 2026, MSC Seashore left Port Canaveral with 4,540 guests and an overnight at Ocean Cay on the schedule. Hours later, the overnight was gone.
No hurricane did that. MSC cited “rough seas and wind gusts up to 40 knots,” and the Bahamas Department of Meteorology had posted a gale warning for the northern islands. The ship went to Nassau a day early and took a sea day instead.
That is a fair preview of what October in the Bahamas usually costs you: a port, not your safety.
Is It Safe to Cruise to the Bahamas in October? What 35 Years of Storm Tracks Show
Yes, for most sailings, but go in expecting that your itinerary could change. A ship has engines, a forecast and room to run, so the realistic risk is a skipped port or a late return. Hurricane season is still officially open: the National Hurricane Center says it runs June 1 to November 30, peaks on September 10, and sees “most activity” between mid-August and mid-October. On land, the bigger question in Nassau is crime, which we cover below.
Rather than repeat “the risk tapers off,” we counted. We ran NOAA’s official HURDAT2 storm database for 1991 to 2025 and logged every tropical storm or hurricane by the month it first came close.
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Send me the deals →| Month | Within 150 nautical miles of Nassau | Anywhere around the Bahamas chain | Of those, at hurricane strength in the area |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| August | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| September | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| October | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| November | 6 | 6 | 2 |
Three things stand out:
- October is quieter than August or September, but its storms are strong. Nine storms arrived in 35 years, in nine different Octobers, so roughly one October in four. Seven of the nine reached hurricane strength in the area.
- Your odds for one sailing are low. Nine storms in 35 Octobers, spread over 31 days, works out to about a 6% chance that one enters the area during a given seven-night cruise. That’s rough arithmetic: it ignores how long storms linger, and distant storms can still move ships.
- Nassau itself sees far fewer. Only four came within 150 nautical miles of the city during October, and the last was Matthew in 2016. (Noel got there on November 1, 2007, so the table counts that pass in November.)
Is Late October Safer? Not by This Count
Plenty of travel advice says the danger fades as the month goes on. Over these 35 years, it split dead even: three storms in each third of the month.
| Part of October | Storm and first date in the area | Peak winds in the area |
|---|---|---|
| 1st to 10th | Joaquin, Oct. 1, 2015 | 155 mph |
| Tammy, Oct. 5, 2005 | 40 mph | |
| Matthew, Oct. 5, 2016 | 138 mph | |
| 11th to 20th | Fabian, Oct. 16, 1991 | 46 mph |
| Lili, Oct. 18, 1996 | 115 mph | |
| Oscar, Oct. 20, 2024 | 81 mph | |
| 21st to 31st | Sandy, Oct. 25, 2012 | 109 mph |
| Melissa, Oct. 29, 2025 | 104 mph | |
| Noel, Oct. 30, 2007 | 81 mph (on Nov. 2) |
The two worst, in the National Hurricane Center’s own reports:
- Joaquin (2015) was “the strongest October hurricane known to have affected the Bahamas since 1866.” It devastated Crooked Island, Acklins, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador. It also killed 34 people at sea, 33 of them the crew of the cargo ship El Faro.
- Matthew (2016) was a Category 4 about 25 nautical miles south-southwest of Nassau on October 6. Nassau’s airport site measured a sustained 100 knots, about 115 mph. The report cites officials putting damage at $600 million or more.
The Bahamas Is Big, and Ships Use That
The islands are spread out, and a storm at one end can leave the other open. Melissa made landfall on Long Island and San Salvador on October 29 and 30, 2025, at about 92 mph. That same week, Carnival moved Carnival Sunrise and Carnival Vista to Nassau from ports farther southeast, and Disney Wish reshuffled its Castaway Cay and Nassau days.
It can run the other way too. For Matthew, Carnival Elation dropped Half Moon Cay and Nassau for Key West and Freeport.
What Really Goes Wrong: Ports, Refunds and Getting Home
You don’t need a named storm to lose a port. The October 28, 2024, sailing of Utopia of the Seas swapped Nassau and CocoCay for Labadee because of “adverse weather.” Cruise Mummy reported the same change.
And your contract says the line owes you very little when that happens. Two examples, in their own words:
- Carnival, clause 8(d): it may “omit or change any or all port calls… for any reason whatsoever, including but not limited to… adverse weather, hurricanes.” Apart from mechanical failures, its change-of-itinerary policy and federal rules, it “shall have no liability for any compensation.”
- Royal Caribbean, section 7.b: it may “cancel, advance, postpone or deviate from any scheduled sailing, port of call,” and “shall not be liable for any claim whatsoever by Guest, including but not limited to loss, compensation or refund,” with exceptions for mechanical failures and applicable law.
What you normally do get back is money for tours you can no longer take: MSC refunded Ocean Cay excursions to onboard accounts. We’ve covered the rest in what happens when a ship skips a port and what happens if a cruise is cancelled for a hurricane.
The harder hit is often at your home port. During Hurricane Milton in October 2024, The Maritime Executive reported Port Canaveral, Tampa and Jacksonville closed, and most ships in the Bahamas or due back in Florida repositioned to ride it out, with trips extended free of charge. Port Canaveral’s closure also led MSC to cancel a three-night Bahamas sailing with “full refunds.” That’s a safe outcome, and a real problem if you’re due at work on Monday.
Is Nassau Safe to Walk Around?
Weather isn’t the only safety question. The US State Department keeps the Bahamas at Level 2, “exercise increased caution,” and updated its summary on July 28, 2026. State’s own page blocks our requests, so this comes from reports that quote it, plus Britain’s guidance:
- Where: most crime occurs in Nassau and Freeport, both major cruise ports. The named trouble spot is “Over the Hill,” south of Shirley Street, where Travel + Leisure reports gangs have killed residents. Cruise Hive puts Shirley Street about two blocks south of the terminal, so it’s closer than it sounds.
- On the water: the UK government reports “sexual assaults on foreign nationals by jet ski operators in Nassau” and calls water sports “poorly regulated.” We’d skip the beach jet ski rental.
- On foot: the UK advice is “do not go on foot outside the main tourist areas and beaches, especially if you are alone,” and it notes regular police patrols downtown.
- In your bag: firearms and ammunition are illegal. Americans have been detained after ammunition turned up in their luggage, so check every pocket.
Mind your own behavior too: one cruise passenger who tried to stop Bay Street traffic for an ATV convoy was arrested.
What’s the Weather Like if No Storm Shows Up?
Warm and showery. Nassau’s 1991–2020 table on Wikipedia, citing the Bahamas Department of Meteorology, gives an October high of 87°F, 5.93 inches of rain and 13 wet days, down from 7.70 inches and 17 days in September. An older 1971–2000 set at Current Results says 86°F, 6.4 inches and 15 days. Either way, pack a light rain jacket.
The trade-off is price and crowds. Holland America names September and October as the best months for deals, with “less crowds,” and says December through April is the best time to visit.
If You’re Booking an October Bahamas Cruise
- Don’t book for one port. If CocoCay or Ocean Cay is the whole point, October is the wrong month to bet on it.
- Buy insurance when you book. Before you pay, check how the policy treats a storm that’s already been named.
- Leave slack at both ends. Fly in the day before, avoid a tight flight home, and carry a few extra days of medication.
- Watch nhc.noaa.gov from a week out, and check your line’s app rather than rumor.
- Be suspicious of screenshots. In the same week as the MSC change, an email claiming Utopia of the Seas had swapped the Bahamas for Cozumel spread on Reddit. Royal Caribbean told Cruise Hive it was fake: “no guest communication regarding such a change was sent out by our team.”
Cruise Chaos earns nothing from cruise lines, travel agents, insurers or booking links. Every fact here links to where we read it, and we ran the NOAA storm counts ourselves on October 30, 2026. If something has changed, tell us and we’ll correct it.
Coming up on Cruise Chaos: what to pack for a cruise to Alaska in August.
Keep Reading
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- How to Avoid Seasickness on a Cruise: The Cabin, the Pills and the Timing
- Snap, Drift, Crunch: Why Cruise Ships Keep Breaking Free From the Dock
Sources
- NOAA National Hurricane Center: HURDAT2 Atlantic best-track data, 1851–2025 (downloaded October 30, 2026; counts are our own)
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Climatology
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Joaquin
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Matthew
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Melissa
- Carnival Cruise Line: Cruise Ticket Contract
- Royal Caribbean: Guest Terms and Ticket Contract
- UK Foreign Office: Bahamas safety and security
- Cruise Hive: MSC Seashore Scraps Ocean Cay Overnight Over Bahamas Gale Warning
- Cruise Hive: Utopia of the Seas report, with Royal Caribbean’s correction that the email was fake
- Cruise Hive: What the New Bahamas Travel Advisory Means for Your Next Cruise
- Travel + Leisure via Yahoo: US government updates Bahamas travel advisory (April 2025)
- Cruise Industry News: Hurricane Melissa, Carnival Confirms Five Itinerary Changes
- PAX News: Cruise lines reroute ships in response to Hurricane Melissa
- Cruise Industry News: Utopia of the Seas to Sail to Labadee Due to Inclement Weather
- Cruise Mummy: Utopia of the Seas itinerary change, October 2024
- Cruise Industry News: MSC Cancels Cruise From Port Canaveral Due to Hurricane
- The Maritime Executive: Hurricane Milton Interrupts Operations for the Florida Cruise Industry
- News4Jax: Cruises change itineraries due to Hurricane Matthew
- Holland America Line: Worst Time to Visit the Bahamas
- Wikipedia: Nassau, Bahamas (climate table, Bahamas Department of Meteorology 1991–2020)
- Current Results: Nassau Weather in October (1971–2000 normals)
